Will The Net Crash in 2010?

There has been a lot of talk in the news lately over the threat of ‘brown outs’ and a potential crash on the internet. I’ve already talked to a few freelance professionals who are in a panic.

First – don’t sweat it. When television took off, the communication companies came to the rescue. Already, companies like AT&T are promising to invest billions into upgrading.

There is a problem – video. It will be blamed for 80% of the bandwidth hogging. This will slow down the net. According to a study, partly funded by the Internet Innovation Alliance (IIA), the cost of an total overhaul will reach 137 billion dollars.

What Does that Mean to Us?

I don’t think the hype means anything. AT&T is already upgrading to the tune of $19 billion. Can you really see the giant conglomerates giving up their golden egg, companies like Google, AT&T, AOL, BT (UK), Rodgers, and others.

There will be a race to fiber optics – and beyond. The winners will see their stocks skyrocket. That in itself is worth billions, not to state that all that extra bandwidth can be sold. One single podcaster pays $0.01 per hour of audio file.

That spike in video – someone will pay for it. Webmasters will probably pay for it in hosting costs. To put the panic in perspective, if every ‘active’ domain name in 2007, 6.6 billion, were charged a onetime fee of $5.44, the cost would be covered.

Currently only 20% of the world’s population uses the internet. (1,319,872,109 users) if everyone was charged a onetime fee of $100, the cost would be covered. Of course, they wouldn’t do that. We would be billed $20 more a year for years.

Online retail sales, excluding travel, exceeded US$175 billion in 2007, an increase of 21 percent from 2006, according to Forrester Research. Forrester expects online sales to exceed $200 billion this year and exceed $300 billion in 2011.

When looking at the problem in ‘global’ terms, you can see that the big companies will not be afraid to invest the money needed to meet the future demand. There is money to be made. And whenever there is money to be made, someone will invest.

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